Presentations · Proposal
Feedback on the Modeling App and four threads to address it: a simpler user flow, building blocks, user stories and a CLI path. Ideas for feedback.
For Implementers and HISP groups, Partners and funders, Data scientists and modellers
Introductory · 20 min · Presented live or self-paced from a link · Synthetic data
New Modeling App user flow
modeling appuser flowbuilding blocksuser storiescliproposal
Presentations · Session 1
The stages of a model, baseline models, how to read an evaluation, and what a metric adds. A 45-minute webinar.
For District health officers, HMIS staff, Epidemiologists
Introductory · 45 min · Presented live · Synthetic data
modelsbaselinesbacktestingevaluationmetricswebinar
Presentations · Session 1 · Practice
Try the tools from Session 1 yourself and answer a few questions. Your answers help us improve the training.
For District health officers, HMIS staff, Epidemiologists
Introductory · 20 min · Self-paced from a link · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
baselinesbacktestingquizpractice
Evaluation metrics · Metric guide
CRPS (log1p) scores the middle line and the band together, on a scale where every district counts the same.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff
Intermediate · 10 min · Self-paced from a link or presented live · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
probabilisticlog scale
Evaluation metrics · Metric guide
MAE is how many cases the middle line was off, on average. The easiest metric to explain.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff, District health officers
Intermediate · 10 min · Self-paced from a link or presented live · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
point forecastmedian
Evaluation metrics · Metric guide
MAPE is the miss as a share of what really happened, and why it breaks in quiet months.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff
Intermediate · 10 min · Self-paced from a link or presented live · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
point forecastmedian
Evaluation metrics · Metrics
The six headline metrics side by side: what each asks, when they disagree, and how to compare a model with the baseline.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff
Intermediate · 30 min · Presented live or self-paced from a link · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
skillcomparisonbaselines
Evaluation metrics · Metric guide
RMSE squares each miss before averaging, so one missed outbreak weighs more than many small misses.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff
Intermediate · 10 min · Self-paced from a link or presented live · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
point forecastmedian
Evaluation metrics · Metric guide
Winkler 25-75 (log1p) rewards a narrow middle band and penalises every value that lands outside it.
For Epidemiologists, Data scientists and modellers, HMIS staff
Intermediate · 10 min · Self-paced from a link or presented live · Synthetic data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
prediction intervallog scale
For trainers · Quiz results
Where participants get practice questions wrong, per session. Needs the results key.
For Trainers
Introductory · 10 min · Self-paced from a link · Synthetic data
After Session 1 · Practice: Practise what you saw
quizresultspractice
For trainers · Demo
Run the same interactive slides on the synthetic example or on a dataset in your Chap Core server.
For Trainers
Introductory · 15 min · Presented live or self-paced from a link · Synthetic or Chap Core data
After Session 1: What is a model, and is it any good?
Chap Core datareuse
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